Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4358…ef96 sports 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%11W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$4
politics 21% −$2
other 17% −$11
crypto 9% −$1
economics 9% −$2
culture 8% −$1
world 5% $0
tech 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 152 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses11 / 141
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage160d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $161 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $45 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $129 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $131 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $130 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $44 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $44 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $120 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 23 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $81 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $90 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 16 $121 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $159 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 11 $81 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 11 $3 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winte Feb 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 11 $84 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $41 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $33 7d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $33 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $35 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $36 21d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $39 28d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $39 28d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $45 36d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $45 36d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 93¢ $41 118d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 94¢ $41 118d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 118d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 118d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $40 118d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 118d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 96¢ $39 118d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $39 118d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 118d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 118d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $39 118d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $39 118d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $41 118d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $41 118d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $9 118d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 118d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 118d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $29 118d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $38 118d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $44 118d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $44 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.56 · official $40.56 (match) · 549 history records