Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:57:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

43 0x4359…36c9 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 412d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$80 (+14%) realized +$80 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip

Net edge+43%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%4W / 3L

Drawdown44%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$6

7 days+$6

14 days+$6

30 days+$6

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+42.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+33.8%	+21.0%	60%	60%	+10.3%
≤30d	5	+33.8%	+21.0%	60%	60%	+10.3%
≤90d	5	+33.8%	+21.0%	60%	60%	+10.3%
all	7	+57.6%	+42.6%	57%	57%	+1.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+42.6%	57%	+1.8%
10%	+28.9%	57%	-7.9%
15%	+16.5%	57%	-16.8%
20%	+5.1%	57%	-25.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 89% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +22% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +58% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$33 vs −$20 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage

Net worth$13

Realized+$80

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses4 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)7 / 10

History coverage412d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown44%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	62¢	66¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+6%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	54¢	55¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	34¢	34¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 15	$3	$0	-6%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 15	$8	−$8	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$5	+$4	+86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5	+$3	+54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5	+$7	+134%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Jan 19	$497	−$52	-10%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-29?	Apr 30	$48	+$118	+245%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	34¢	$3	38m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	43¢	$3	45m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	44¢	$3	49m
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	27¢	$3	1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	52¢	$5	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$5	5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	53¢	$5	29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$8	37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY No	42¢	$5	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$5	2d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	SELL Yes	17¢	$445	147d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY Yes	19¢	$497	253d
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-29?	BUY Yes	29¢	$48	412d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.28 · official $13.28 (match) · 17 history records