Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

43 0x435b…d670 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$590 (+24%) realized +$591 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR72%break-even

Win rate72%13W / 5L

Drawdown52%max

Avg bet$106per market

Trades / day1.3pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit30%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$82

7 days+$301

14 days+$534

30 days+$573

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +72%

net ROI/market (all)+10.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+20.6%	+9.1%	86%	86%	+23.8%
≤30d	18	+22.6%	+10.9%	72%	72%	+17.4%
≤90d	18	+22.6%	+10.9%	72%	72%	+17.4%
all	18	+22.6%	+10.9%	72%	72%	+17.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.9%	72%	+17.4%
10%	+0.3%	72%	+6.1%
15%	-9.4%	67%	-4.1%
20%	-18.3%	33%	-13.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 27% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +16% → late +30% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$76 vs −$82 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized+$591

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)72%

Wins / losses13 / 5

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 23

History coverage17d

Avg bet$106

Trades / day1.3

Drawdown52%

Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	No	69¢	68¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 28	$101	+$40	+40%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$201	+$52	+26%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$101	+$50	+50%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$101	+$46	+46%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$202	+$76	+38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$46	+46%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$101	+$48	+48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$101	+$74	+73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$102	+$111	+109%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 13	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$102	−$100	-98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$101	−$100	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$102	+$111	+109%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on	Jun 12	$102	+$63	+62%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	Jun 12	$102	+$116	+114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$101	−$100	-99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$102	+$148	+146%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	69¢	$101	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	68¢	$101	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi	BUY	27¢	$102	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	38¢	$102	7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$101	7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY	28¢	$102	9d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	14d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	71¢	$101	14d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	14d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	72¢	$202	14d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1	BUY	54¢	$101	14d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	62¢	$101	14d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	46¢	$102	15d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	79¢	$201	15d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	15d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on	BUY Yes	61¢	$102	15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	53¢	$101	15d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	40¢	$102	17d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.55 · official $98.55 (match) · 36 history records