Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:38:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x4361…37f6 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$149 (+9%) realized +$133 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%12W / 11L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days+$121
14 days+$121
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$55
other 19% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +14.6% +3.7% 52% 52% -1.3%
≤30d 23 +14.6% +3.7% 52% 52% -1.3%
≤90d 23 +14.6% +3.7% 52% 52% -1.3%
all 23 +14.6% +3.7% 52% 52% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 52% -1.3%
10% -6.3% 52% -10.8%
15% -15.3% 52% -19.4%
20% -23.6% 52% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$60 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses12 / 11
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage11d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $173 −$170 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$30 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$71 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $52 −$51 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $36 +$62 +172%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 +$52 +146%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $86 +$80 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $61 +$41 +67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$65 +128%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $65 +$139 +213%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $36 +$37 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $71 +$60 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $203 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $71 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 9h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 29h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 33h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 33h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $52 33h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 38h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 50¢ $51 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $36 42h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $36 44h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $61 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $86 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $101 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $26 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $61 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $196 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $116 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $204 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $65 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $40 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $131 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.69 · official $316.69 (match) · 55 history records