Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
43 0x4362…9e47 other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$24,655 (+21%) realized +$24,655 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%26W / 25L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$1,414per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$852est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$22,684
sports 37% +$16,282
crypto 4% +$5,503
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +7.1% -3.1% 45% 45% -8.5%
≤30d 51 +63.4% +47.8% 51% 51% +43.9%
≤90d 51 +63.4% +47.8% 51% 51% +43.9%
all 51 +63.4% +47.8% 51% 51% +43.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.8% 51% +43.9%
10% +33.7% 51% +30.1%
15% +20.8% 51% +17.5%
20% +8.9% 49% +6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +110% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,653 vs −$980 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24,655
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses26 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$852
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 82
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1,414
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $1,729 +$2,184 +126%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $321 −$313 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $2,337 −$2,000 -86%
Noni Madueke: 1+ shots AND Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots AND Yoane Wissa: 1+ Jun 28 $500 +$1,941 +388%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 28 $776 −$776 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,555 −$2,500 -98%
Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots Jun 27 $10 +$5 +46%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 27 $57 −$57 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $837 +$511 +61%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $2,022 +$1,149 +57%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots Jun 27 $19 −$18 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japa Jun 21 $2,041 +$4,328 +212%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $154 −$150 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $1,015 +$983 +97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 21 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $308 −$308 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 21 $2,044 +$5,503 +269%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $513 +$961 +187%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1,020 +$1,982 +194%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1,014 +$890 +88%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $2,547 +$4,054 +159%
Son Heungmin: 3+ shots Jun 20 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals Jun 20 $308 −$308 -100%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 20 $1,788 −$1,788 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,019 +$1,321 +130%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,538 +$2,558 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $512 −$512 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,814 −$1,814 -100%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 19 $978 −$978 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,806 −$1,806 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $1,529 −$1,529 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 19 $1,065 −$1,065 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1,452 −$1,452 -100%
Anthony Gordon: 1+ assists Jun 19 $922 −$922 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $2,939 −$2,939 -100%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $139 −$135 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,420 +$1,199 +84%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $455 +$259 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,025 +$1,423 +70%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $898 +$4,550 +507%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1,986 +$2,453 +124%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,031 +$8,564 +212%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,077 +$5,228 +103%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $174 +$6,323 +3641%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,026 +$2,247 +219%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6,087 +$4,494 +74%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $968 +$552 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,913 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 16¢ $321 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 43¢ $1,729 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND South Africa vs. BUY 8¢ $798 5h
Jonathan David: 2+ shots AND South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Co BUY 53¢ $2,000 5h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9,990 18h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $309 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $2,555 20h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $265 22h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $511 22h
Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots SELL Yes 80¢ $14 23h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL 97¢ $1,348 23h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Bruno Fernande BUY 3¢ $500 23h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $3,171 23h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 59¢ $837 24h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $2,022 26h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 53¢ $2,028 29h
Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots BUY Yes 33¢ $19 29h
Amine Gouiri: 1+ shots AND Luis Díaz: 1+ shots BUY 69¢ $490 29h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 25¢ $1,986 29h
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals AND Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Yoane Wi BUY 6¢ $100 33h
Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots BUY Yes 54¢ $3 33h
Marcus Rashford: 2+ shots BUY Yes 54¢ $7 33h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $15 34h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $42 34h
Antoine Semenyo: 2+ shots AND Declan Rice: 1+ shots AND Luis Díaz: 2+ BUY 12¢ $500 35h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 10¢ $1,000 35h
Noni Madueke: 1+ shots AND Nikola Vlašić: 1+ shots AND Yoane Wissa: 1+ BUY 20¢ $500 35h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Bruno Fernandes: 1 BUY 4¢ $500 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? AND W BUY 16¢ $1,493 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $776.69 · 165 history records