Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x4368…871e other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$165 (+18%) realized +$165 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$34
14 days+$152
30 days+$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$56
sports 31% +$29
tech 24% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -46.8% -51.8% 38% 38% -4.8%
≤30d 16 -13.4% -21.7% 50% 50% +6.0%
≤90d 16 -13.4% -21.7% 50% 50% +6.0%
all 16 -13.4% -21.7% 50% 50% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 50% +6.0%
10% -29.2% 31% -4.1%
15% -36.0% 25% -13.4%
20% -42.3% 25% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$18 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage9d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $201 +$43 +21%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $30 −$25 -81%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $212 +$107 +50%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$51 +250%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $201 +$42 +21%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 +$25 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 27m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 11h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 32h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 44¢ $20 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 82¢ $201 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.65 · official $34.65 (match) · 30 history records