trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +5.5% | -4.5% | 100% | 0% | -4.5% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -34.7% | -41.0% | 50% | 0% | -19.6% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -13.8% | -22.0% | 67% | 11% | -18.9% |
| all | 25 | -5.2% | -14.2% | 64% | 16% | -6.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.2% | 16% | -6.3% |
| 10% | -22.4% | 12% | -15.2% |
| 15% | -29.9% | 4% | -23.4% |
| 20% | -36.8% | 0% | -30.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win on 2026-06-27? | Yes | 86¢ | 99¢ | $27 | $32 | +$4 (+15%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $34 | +$2 | +6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 29 | $9 | −$7 | -75% |
| Will Solana reach $100 in May? | May 06 | $27 | +$8 | +31% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 06 | $47 | +$2 | +5% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | May 05 | $47 | −$47 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Apr 15 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Apr 01 | $54 | +$5 | +9% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | Apr 01 | $76 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? | Apr 01 | $38 | $0 | +1% |
| Starmer out by March 31, 2026? | Mar 25 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | Mar 24 | $47 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | Mar 22 | $95 | +$4 | +5% |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Mar 21 | $44 | +$1 | +2% |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Mar 21 | $17 | $0 | +2% |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Mar 14 | $150 | +$4 | +3% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Mar 02 | $46 | −$3 | -6% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 27 | $93 | −$5 | -5% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Feb 27 | $98 | −$1 | -1% |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | Feb 27 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | Feb 22 | $148 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February? | Feb 21 | $123 | +$42 | +34% |
| Bulls vs. Pacers | Jan 29 | $104 | +$44 | +43% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 28 | $125 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? | Jan 27 | $124 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P | Jan 24 | $80 | +$7 | +9% |