Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x436d…dade crypto 945 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 132d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$487 (-4%) realized −$487 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate60%568W / 377L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$192
7 days−$158
14 days−$53
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$489
other 1% −$64
sports 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -17.4% -25.3% 41% 31% -23.7%
≤30d 453 -5.4% -14.4% 53% 37% -13.4%
≤90d 857 -8.8% -17.4% 59% 38% -13.9%
all 945 -6.6% -15.5% 60% 39% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 39% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 29% -22.0%
15% -31.0% 20% -29.5%
20% -37.7% 15% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$487
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses568 / 377
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)945 / 945
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 945 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$51 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $7 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records