Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:57:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
43 0x436e…1ecf crypto 432 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$577 (+4%) realized +$577 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate83%359W / 73L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$54
14 days+$45
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +7.2% -3.0% 81% 62% -5.1%
≤30d 79 +28.8% +16.5% 75% 52% -8.0%
≤90d 432 +7.3% -2.9% 83% 10% -8.6%
all 432 +7.3% -2.9% 83% 10% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 10% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 1% -17.3%
15% -20.7% 1% -25.3%
20% -28.4% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$577
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses359 / 73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)432 / 432
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 432 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $30 −$20 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $69 +$17 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 27 $69 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $49 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $69 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $69 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $149 −$44 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $49 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $84 −$31 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $99 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $67 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $87 −$38 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $44 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $99 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $49 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $49 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $66 +$13 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $69 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $19 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $13 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $24 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $12 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $27 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $70 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records