Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:58:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x436f…2c7f world 69 markets active 36d ago coverage 73d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$19,726 (-3%) realized −$17,081 · open −$2,645
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%38W / 30L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,569per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% +$34,057
finance 9% −$26,405
other 3% −$1,955
crypto 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +47.6% +33.6% 100% 100% +34.7%
≤90d 66 +16.8% +5.6% 55% 52% -8.7%
all 68 +17.2% +6.1% 56% 53% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.1% 53% -8.2%
10% -4.1% 44% -17.0%
15% ← realistic here -13.4% 37% -25.0%
20% -21.8% 25% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$11,923) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
38.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,858 vs −$7,144 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$17,081
Unrealized−$2,645
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses38 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$8,569
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $2,660 $16 −$2,645 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $44,480 +$21,925 +49%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,141 +$3,282 +46%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 24 $11,614 −$7,400 -64%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 23 $2,546 −$1,590 -62%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 23 $8,066 −$2,787 -35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 23 $4,642 +$1,263 +27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? May 23 $5,250 +$1,116 +21%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 23 $4,100 +$703 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 23 $10,212 −$7,446 -73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 23 $462 −$238 -52%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $33,357 −$5,417 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $20,000 +$3,159 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $21,042 +$14,955 +71%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? May 21 $707 −$364 -52%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 21 $949 −$168 -18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 21 $7,613 −$6,146 -81%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $4,062 −$2,601 -64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 20 $12,650 −$2,128 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $3,000 +$43 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $3,851 −$3,851 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $20,580 +$5,068 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 06 $5,894 +$1,099 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $54 −$54 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 03 $612 +$1,567 +256%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 01 $4,790 +$1,804 +38%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $25,025 +$10,440 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $12,298 +$6,570 +53%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 29 $1,782 +$563 +32%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $11,923 +$9,659 +81%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 27 $1,250 +$474 +38%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 26 $2,500 +$4,783 +191%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 26 $5,414 +$8,781 +162%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 26 $2,331 +$4,060 +174%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 26 $5,750 +$1,916 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $12,309 +$11,273 +92%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $8,006 +$13,778 +172%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $5,018 +$1,951 +39%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 17 $3,543 −$989 -28%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 16 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12 Apr 16 $114 +$113 +99%
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-Apr Apr 16 $5,625 +$3,490 +62%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 12 $12,588 +$5,091 +40%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $20,502 −$20,502 -100%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23 Apr 10 $3,790 +$2,390 +63%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $19,158 −$14,802 -77%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 09 $949 +$2,631 +277%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 09 $485 +$730 +150%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 09 $3,580 −$2,885 -81%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $15,030 +$69,077 +460%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 09 $0 $0 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 35d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $93 36d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $64 36d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $36 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL Yes 19¢ $775 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL Yes 18¢ $241 36d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $85 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 36d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL Yes 19¢ $238 36d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 36d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $455 36d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $100 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 80¢ $786 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 80¢ $2,192 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 80¢ $1,822 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 82¢ $5,133 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 80¢ $5,000 36d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 79¢ $54 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 81¢ $250 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 82¢ $250 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 82¢ $11 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 82¢ $45 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 82¢ $118 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 82¢ $23 36d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $42 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 82¢ $9 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 82¢ $45 36d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $53 36d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 82¢ $246 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.54 · official $15.54 (match) · 3500 history records