Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x4372…6a96 sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,983 (+18%) realized +$3,194 · open −$211
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%32W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$995now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,383
7 days+$2,270
14 days+$2,239
30 days+$2,019
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$5,412
other 27% −$1,188
world 17% −$1,971
politics 4% +$124
crypto 2% −$134
economics 0% −$25
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +38.2% +25.0% 35% 35% +12.0%
≤30d 77 +32.0% +19.4% 35% 35% +7.9%
≤90d 87 +16.8% +5.7% 31% 31% +0.9%
all 124 +0.9% -8.7% 26% 26% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 26% +5.3%
10% -17.5% 26% -4.8%
15% -25.5% 26% -14.0%
20% -32.8% 26% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$373 vs −$103 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$995
Realized+$3,194
Unrealized−$211
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses32 / 92
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions10
Markets (closed)124 / 134
History coverage139d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $340 $474 +$134 (+39%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $172 $155 −$16 (-10%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $32 $50 +$18 (+56%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 18¢ $105 $46 −$59 (-56%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-42%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes 18¢ 5¢ $100 $28 −$72 (-72%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Over 23¢ 6¢ $57 $16 −$41 (-72%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $150 $8 −$142 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $179 −$175 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $320 −$315 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$87 +172%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $107 −$105 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $104 +$196 +188%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$120 +119%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $82 +$806 +982%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 +$245 +238%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $111 +$489 +442%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $415 +$685 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $66 −$66 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $121 −$118 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $44 +$156 +352%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $143 +$157 +109%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $209 +$291 +140%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $104 +$196 +188%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $90 −$88 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $445 −$437 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $104 −$102 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $138 +$112 +82%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $251 −$245 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $152 −$150 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $382 −$376 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $307 −$301 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $148 −$145 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $424 +$376 +89%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $139 −$136 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $143 −$142 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $87 −$85 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $35 +$465 +1346%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $138 +$362 +262%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $56 +$444 +785%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $143 +$357 +250%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $49 −$48 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $508 +$492 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $47 −$47 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $110 +$190 +172%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $166 −$162 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $49 33m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $2 34m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $6 34m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $107 34m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $219 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $102 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $105 4h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $42 8h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $36 8h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $13 8h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $11 8h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $107 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 10h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $153 10h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 22¢ $56 19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $102 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $104 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 12¢ $57 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 12¢ $9 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $121 23h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $111 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $103 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $151 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $995.47 · official $995.47 (match) · 664 history records