Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:45:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4374…3d05 crypto 1427 markets active 1h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,869 (-8%) realized −$2,870 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%730W / 696L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$62
14 days−$121
30 days−$926
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$519
sports 31% −$1,712
weather 15% −$1,070
other 2% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -14.6% -22.7% 50% 50% -17.2%
≤30d 390 -9.8% -18.4% 52% 50% -23.5%
≤90d 1285 -8.5% -17.3% 51% 50% -19.1%
all 1426 -7.2% -16.1% 51% 50% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 50% -17.8%
10% -24.1% 49% -25.7%
15% -31.4% 47% -32.9%
20% -38.2% 41% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$2,870
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses730 / 696
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1426 / 1427
History coverage204d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1426 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? No 44¢ 46¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 440 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 +$9 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $49 +$59 +119%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $27 +$16 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $26 +$16 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$7 +93%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $22 −$22 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? Jun 25 $35 −$35 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $84 +$17 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $31 +$26 +84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $70 +$52 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 24 $17 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 24 $27 +$8 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 24 $26 +$16 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $60 −$58 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$6 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 −$16 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$6 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? BUY No 39¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 98¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? SELL Yes 95¢ $108 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 66¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? BUY No 48¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $44 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 61¢ $27 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? SELL No 99¢ $41 9h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? SELL No 0¢ $0 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $14 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $14 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 68¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 75¢ $7 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 72¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 75¢ $15 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 59¢ $20 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 74¢ $28 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $9 24h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 25? BUY No 43¢ $8 26h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 94¢ $59 26h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $18 26h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $57 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.05 · official $27.05 (match) · 3154 history records