Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

43 0x4375…d86e other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$105 (-3%) realized −$128 · open +$23

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR69%break-even

Win rate69%11W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$187per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$46

14 days−$46

30 days−$46

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +69%

net ROI/market (all)-3.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+10.0%	-0.5%	67%	67%	-25.2%
≤30d	3	+10.0%	-0.5%	67%	67%	-25.2%
≤90d	3	+10.0%	-0.5%	67%	67%	-25.2%
all	16	+7.2%	-3.1%	69%	69%	-12.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-3.1%	69%	-12.6%
10%	-12.3%	56%	-21.0%
15%	-20.8%	44%	-28.6%
20%	-28.6%	25%	-35.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 47% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +21% → late -6% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$69 vs −$173 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.88 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage

Net worth$73

Realized−$128

Unrealized+$23

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses11 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage180d

Avg bet$187

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	No	51¢	74¢	$50	$73	+$23 (+46%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$122	−$120	-99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$100	+$22	+22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$48	+$52	+108%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28?	Jan 28	$663	−$663	-100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?	Jan 26	$43	−$43	-100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)	Jan 25	$29	+$13	+45%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?	Jan 11	$211	+$99	+47%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-05?	Jan 05	$634	+$177	+28%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-01-04?	Jan 04	$514	+$120	+23%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-03?	Jan 03	$438	+$77	+18%
Will Mali win on 2025-12-22?	Jan 02	$39	−$39	-100%
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-31?	Dec 31	$254	+$184	+72%
Will Anderson Silva win his boxing match against Tyron Woodley?	Dec 20	$19	+$10	+56%
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision?	Dec 20	$6	+$4	+72%
Will Jake Paul win in Round 6?	Dec 20	$4	+$2	+50%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	Dec 19	$5	−$1	-26%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY No	51¢	$51	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$122	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	78¢	$122	3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$100	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$100	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$48	4d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28?	BUY Yes	54¢	$663	140d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?	BUY Yes	63¢	$43	143d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)	SELL Gaethje	100¢	$43	143d
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUY Gaethje	69¢	$29	143d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?	SELL Yes	69¢	$309	156d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?	BUY Yes	47¢	$211	157d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-05?	SELL Yes	100¢	$811	162d
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-05?	BUY Yes	78¢	$634	162d
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-01-04?	SELL Yes	100¢	$634	163d
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-01-04?	BUY Yes	81¢	$514	164d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-03?	SELL No	100¢	$514	164d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-03?	BUY No	85¢	$438	165d
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-31?	SELL Yes	100¢	$438	167d
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-31?	BUY Yes	58¢	$254	168d
Will Mali win on 2025-12-22?	BUY Yes	60¢	$39	177d
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision?	SELL Yes	25¢	$10	179d
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision?	BUY Yes	14¢	$6	179d
Will Jake Paul win in Round 6?	SELL Yes	2¢	$6	179d
Will Anderson Silva win his boxing match against Tyron Woodley?	BUY Yes	64¢	$19	179d
Will Jake Paul win in Round 6?	BUY Yes	1¢	$4	179d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	SELL Yes	2¢	$4	179d
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	180d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.45 · official $75.91 · 31 history records