Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:05:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
43 0x4377…74c2 sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,447 (+2%) realized +$2,022 · open −$575
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%45W / 54L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$604per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$1,009est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$940
7 days−$2,581
14 days−$2,302
30 days+$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -15.4% -23.5% 39% 39% -17.9%
≤30d 99 -6.1% -15.1% 45% 44% -8.2%
≤90d 99 -6.1% -15.1% 45% 44% -8.2%
all 99 -6.1% -15.1% 45% 44% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 44% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 44% -17.0%
15% -30.6% 43% -25.0%
20% -37.4% 38% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$906) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$586 vs −$478 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$495
Realized+$2,022
Unrealized−$575
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses45 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,009
Open positions3
Markets (closed)99 / 102
History coverage17d
Avg bet$604
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 47¢ 46¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ 0¢ $376 $0 −$376 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ 0¢ $194 $0 −$194 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $444 +$745 +168%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $197 +$347 +176%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $118 +$80 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $441 −$435 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $294 −$288 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $105 −$103 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $587 −$575 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $657 −$469 -71%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $99 +$118 +119%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $73 −$72 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $292 −$287 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $810 −$800 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $996 +$821 +82%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $227 −$224 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $474 +$749 +158%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $994 −$496 -50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 +$4 +137%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $405 −$400 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $693 +$698 +101%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 13 $740 −$730 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $1,115 −$917 -82%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $411 +$826 +201%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,009 −$1,000 -99%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $951 +$1,172 +123%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $611 −$600 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $481 +$992 +206%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $488 −$479 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $249 −$245 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $89 −$88 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $599 −$590 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $262 −$257 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $424 −$417 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $989 +$451 +46%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $765 −$755 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $892 +$862 +96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $580 −$570 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $682 +$387 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $492 −$484 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1,476 −$1,455 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,096 +$870 +79%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $2,462 +$2,326 +94%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $1,346 −$392 -29%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $97 +$100 +103%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $732 +$514 +70%
Game Handicap: EDGY (-1.5) vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (+1.5) Jun 10 $294 +$438 +149%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $405 −$400 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID - Game 3 Jun 10 $245 −$242 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $508 44m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $383 57m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $1,189 59m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 28¢ $98 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $247 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $543 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $98 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 30¢ $95 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $102 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 42¢ $198 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $198 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $118 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $441 20h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $294 21h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 40¢ $105 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $587 28h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 43¢ $217 43h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 99¢ $217 43h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 44¢ $99 43h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $73 44h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Team Vitality 14¢ $171 44h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 35¢ $440 44h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 41¢ $292 47h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $810 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $1,817 2d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 2¢ $2 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $996 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $227 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $1,223 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 38¢ $474 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $495.36 · official $495.36 (match) · 197 history records