Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:49:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4377…d7a3 politics 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 659d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$16
economics 12% −$2
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 84 -4.1% -13.2% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

659d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage659d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $52 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 07 $52 $0 -1%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Montana US Senate Election? Jan 22 $0 $0 +0%
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Nov 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace be relegated? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ja’Marr Chase be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon's daughter move out of the U.S.? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon Diddy? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mark Andrews be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Kyler Murray be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Richardson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Dec 21 $0 $0 -0%
Will Benedict Mathurin win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will $NOT be listed first on Robinhood? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will Auburn win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Nov 25 $1 $0 -1%
Will West Ham win on 2024-11-25? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate Kip Tom for Agriculture Secretary? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 13h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 4d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 31d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 32d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 35d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $51 36d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $51 43d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $51 43d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 61d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 62d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 66d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 66d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 78d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 79d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 83d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 86d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 92d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 93d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $52 96d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $52 96d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 99d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 99d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 101d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 101d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 99¢ $52 103d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $52 104d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $52 105d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $52 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 183 history records