Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
43 0x4378…1bde sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,401 (-36%) realized −$1,184 · open −$217
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$1,669
other 7% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-49.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -58.6% -62.6% 17% 17% -55.2%
≤30d 9 -44.1% -49.4% 22% 22% -48.8%
≤90d 9 -44.1% -49.4% 22% 22% -48.8%
all 9 -44.1% -49.4% 22% 22% -48.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.4% 22% -48.8%
10% -54.3% 22% -53.7%
15% -58.7% 22% -58.2%
20% -62.7% 22% -62.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$290 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized−$1,184
Unrealized−$217
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage11d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Spirit 48¢ 98¢ $178 $365 +$187 (+105%)
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Team Spirit 44¢ 0¢ $404 $0 −$404 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $653 −$646 -99%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $349 −$343 -98%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $271 −$267 -98%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick Jun 24 $624 −$257 -41%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 23 $407 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $543 +$487 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $172 +$116 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $91 −$90 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $199 −$26 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.58 · official $365.58 (match) · 15 history records