Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:39:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
43 0x4379…2e16 sports 307 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (515 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2,269 (-1%) realized +$673 · open −$2,942
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%136W / 457L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,284per market
Trades / day514.9pace
Fees−$4,345est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$56,781now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$34,847
other 21% +$4,057
crypto 1% −$140
world 0% +$1,530
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (515 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-55.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 593 -51.3% -55.9% 23% 21% -48.9%
≤30d 593 -51.3% -55.9% 23% 21% -48.9%
≤90d 593 -51.3% -55.9% 23% 21% -48.9%
all 593 -51.3% -55.9% 23% 21% -48.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover514.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.9% 21% -48.9%
10% -60.1% 19% -53.8%
15% ← realistic here -64.0% 17% -58.2%
20% -67.5% 16% -62.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$1,491) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,020 vs −$909 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$56,781
Realized+$673
Unrealized−$2,942
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses136 / 457
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$4,345
Open positions51
Markets (closed)593 / 307
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$1,284
Trades / day514.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 51 History 593 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 97¢ $2,883 $2,898 +$15 (+1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 96¢ 94¢ $2,880 $2,822 −$58 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 93¢ 94¢ $2,790 $2,805 +$15 (+1%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,730 $2,745 +$15 (+1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 90¢ 90¢ $2,700 $2,685 −$15 (-1%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Miami Marlins 37¢ 88¢ $1,110 $2,640 +$1,530 (+138%)
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Andre Lima 82¢ 84¢ $2,460 $2,535 +$75 (+3%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals 46¢ 78¢ $1,380 $2,325 +$945 (+68%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? No 76¢ 78¢ $2,280 $2,325 +$45 (+2%)
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Card) Vinicius Oliveira 70¢ 70¢ $2,108 $2,123 +$15 (+1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ 70¢ $2,070 $2,115 +$45 (+2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 51¢ 64¢ $1,530 $1,905 +$375 (+25%)
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherweight, Main Card) Murtazali Magomedov 75¢ 80¢ $1,777 $1,890 +$113 (+6%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $1,500 $1,515 +$15 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 56¢ 48¢ $1,680 $1,440 −$240 (-14%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $1,440 $1,380 −$60 (-4%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $1,410 $1,365 −$45 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? No 36¢ 34¢ $1,451 $1,362 −$89 (-6%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Cleveland Guardians 42¢ 42¢ $1,259 $1,244 −$15 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims) Mitch Raposo 40¢ 40¢ $1,218 $1,234 +$15 (+1%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 40¢ 40¢ $1,200 $1,185 −$15 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 37¢ 40¢ $1,110 $1,185 +$75 (+7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 37¢ 38¢ $1,114 $1,129 +$15 (+1%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) San Francisco Giants 60¢ 76¢ $864 $1,102 +$238 (+27%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 36¢ $1,500 $1,080 −$420 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 446 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 20 $343 −$343 -100%
Nuno Borges vs. Miomir Kecmanovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $88 −$88 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 20 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 20 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Elsa Jacquemot Jun 20 $1,297 −$1,297 -100%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 20 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 20 $1,410 −$1,410 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Viktorija Golubic vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $2,970 −$2,970 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 20 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $873 −$873 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 20 $709 −$709 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 20 $570 −$570 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Jun 20 $1,230 −$1,230 -100%
Set Handicap: Halys (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 20 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? Jun 20 $1,620 −$1,620 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 20 $630 −$630 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 20 $660 −$660 -100%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 20 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Slovakia vs. Montenegro end in a draw? Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Parry Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 20 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 20 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 20 $948 −$948 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $1,530 −$1,530 -100%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ignacio Buse vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 20 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $854 −$854 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,456 −$1,456 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $630 −$630 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 20 $570 −$570 -100%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Teichmann (+1.5) Jun 20 $221 −$221 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 20 $815 −$815 -100%
Set Handicap: Bonzi (-1.5) vs Rottgering (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Francesca Jones vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $690 −$690 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 20 $450 −$450 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Luca Van Assche vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 20 $930 −$930 -100%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
Set Handicap: Rinderknech (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $1,445 −$1,445 -100%
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 20 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Set Handicap: Acosta (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,290 −$1,290 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 20 $1,446 −$1,446 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 70¢ $219 0m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 73¢ $5 11m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 73¢ $3 13m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 73¢ $5 13m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 73¢ $5 17m
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 79¢ $8 18m
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 79¢ $8 22m
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 79¢ $19 22m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 73¢ $14 22m
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 70¢ $6 23m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 73¢ $14 24m
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 73¢ $7 25m
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 70¢ $12 25m
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 70¢ $12 27m
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 70¢ $47 28m
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 76¢ $79 28m
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 79¢ $24 28m
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 76¢ $39 29m
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 79¢ $38 30m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 40¢ $379 31m
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 40¢ $7 31m
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 70¢ $67 31m
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 19¢ $172 32m
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 19¢ $8 32m
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 19¢ $8 32m
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 19¢ $23 32m
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 19¢ $8 32m
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 19¢ $8 32m
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 19¢ $23 32m
UFC Fight Night: Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli (Welterweight, Pre BUY Leon Shahbazyan 19¢ $23 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,781.43 · official $56,715.26 (match) · 3500 history records