Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:50:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x437d…9af2 crypto 109 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+2%) realized +$46 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate85%92W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$29
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -1.6% -10.9% 85% 25% -10.3%
≤30d 108 -1.6% -10.9% 85% 25% -10.3%
≤90d 108 -1.6% -10.9% 85% 25% -10.3%
all 108 -1.6% -10.9% 85% 25% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 25% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 10% -18.9%
15% -27.2% 5% -26.7%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses92 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 92¢ 66¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$19 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $15 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.07 · official $18.07 (match) · 227 history records