Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x437d…fcdb other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+2%) realized +$53 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%46W / 15L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$24
economics 13% −$1
politics 11% +$12
culture 9% $0
crypto 7% +$6
finance 7% +$6
sports 4% −$1
world 3% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 10 +8.9% -1.5% 90% 30% -2.9%
≤90d 24 +6.8% -3.4% 92% 33% -1.6%
all 61 +6.5% -3.6% 75% 25% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 25% -5.0%
10% -12.9% 16% -14.1%
15% -21.3% 10% -22.4%
20% -29.0% 3% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.95 per $1 lost it wins $5.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses46 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions29
Markets (closed)61 / 90
History coverage140d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 54¢ 44¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-18%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 83¢ 82¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 90¢ 89¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 74¢ 73¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 85¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 54¢ 20¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+52%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 81¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 92¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $12 +$3 +28%
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 08 $18 −$1 -3%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $29 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 02 $8 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $12 +$3 +26%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $11 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 02 $17 +$4 +23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Jun 02 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 25 $14 +$2 +16%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 11 $11 +$4 +39%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 04 $12 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 04 $23 +$2 +7%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 04 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 03 $20 +$5 +27%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $27 +$3 +10%
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 31 $5 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 27 $17 $0 +2%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 27 $51 +$7 +14%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $5 +$1 +16%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Mar 04 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in February? Mar 04 $5 $0 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in February? Mar 04 $40 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 28 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in February? Feb 21 $13 $0 +2%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 21 $2 +$3 +178%
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Feb 15 $18 $0 +0%
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Espresso FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 15 $6 $0 +5%
Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 12 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $27 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $52 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $54 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 2h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $25 2h
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 83¢ $9 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL No 99¢ $12 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL No 99¢ $6 2h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 9d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 92¢ $11 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY No 96¢ $6 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? SELL No 97¢ $32 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY No 97¢ $33 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $33 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $36 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.38 · official $88.87 · 320 history records