Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x437f…343c crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-5%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate70%23W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day99.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$4
other 18% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.4% -9.1% 70% 39% -13.7%
≤30d 33 +0.4% -9.1% 70% 39% -13.7%
≤90d 33 +0.4% -9.1% 70% 39% -13.7%
all 33 +0.4% -9.1% 70% 39% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 39% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 30% -22.0%
15% -25.8% 18% -29.5%
20% -33.0% 9% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses23 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day99.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 50¢ 55¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +171%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $3 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.04 · official $16.94 (match) · 118 history records