Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4381…7e06 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$10
other 25% +$3
politics 6% $0
finance 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.8% -16.6% 0% 0% -12.9%
≤30d 14 -3.1% -12.3% 14% 7% -11.5%
≤90d 14 -3.1% -12.3% 14% 7% -11.5%
all 44 -5.2% -14.2% 41% 5% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 5% -10.3%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.9%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage471d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $13 −$3 -24%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $39 −$2 -5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $35 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $37 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $10 −$2 -18%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 10 $9 $0 -1%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jeremy Jordan win the Tony for Best Leading Actor in a Musical 20 Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Luxembourg finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 13 $17 $0 -2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 13 $4 $0 +9%
Circle IPO in 2025? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian ele Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 05 $2 $0 -16%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lily Phillips break Bonnie Blue's 24hr sex record before April? Mar 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or higher on March 16? Mar 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $17 $0 -1%
Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? Mar 15 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $13 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $32 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $28 18h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $13 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $22 20h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $29 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $4 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $35 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $17 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $29 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $3 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $40 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $7 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records