Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4383…b4a9 other 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$20
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$25
politics 29% −$18
sports 19% −$8
crypto 9% +$2
economics 5% −$3
finance 3% +$2
culture 2% −$2
world 1% $0
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.0% -10.4% 4% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 66 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 116 -0.5% -10.0% 13% 0% -9.8%
all 131 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 115
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage99d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $128 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $28 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $201 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $439 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $63 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $62 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $74 −$2 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $195 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $98 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $200 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $195 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $60 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $163 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $48 −$1 -3%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $156 $0 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $94 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $204 −$1 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $470 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $117 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $107 −$2 -2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 02 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $104 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $156 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $186 −$3 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $40 23m
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $64 58m
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $65 6h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $41 6h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $41 14h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $42 15h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 19h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $27 19h
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $28 25h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 26h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 33h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $45 34h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $45 42h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $59 43h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $59 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $63 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $47 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $48 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 92¢ $61 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $62 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $47 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 3d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $49 3d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $21 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 96¢ $21 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.89 · official $39.89 (match) · 485 history records