Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4386…f08d
other · 45 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses25 / 11
Open positions9
Markets (closed)36 / 45
History coverage96d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 9 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$20
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 51¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? No 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? No 92¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? No 92¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $9 +$3 +31%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $7 +$1 +21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $11 +$3 +23%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $8 +$3 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $4 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 $0 +10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$3 -63%
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates in May? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $9 −$9 -99%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% +$3
weather 27% +$2
crypto 8% −$6
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 3h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 60¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $19 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $16 14h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? SELL No 99¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? SELL No 89¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 73¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju SELL No 75¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +9.9% -0.5% 87% 35% +4.5%
≤30d 34 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 32% -9.9%
≤90d 34 -4.4% -13.5% 74% 32% -9.9%
all 36 -9.7% -18.3% 69% 31% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 31% -10.8%
10% -26.1% 17% -19.4%
15% -33.2% 3% -27.2%
20% -39.8% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.46 · official $27.46 (match) · 83 history records