trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | May 04 | $1 | +$3 | +340% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Apr 19 | $2 | +$3 | +170% |
| Will Trump praise Marjorie Taylor Greene by December 31? | Apr 19 | $1 | +$4 | +400% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | Apr 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | Apr 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? | Apr 19 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET | Apr 19 | $2 | −$2 | -93% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on November 19? | Nov 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? | Nov 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 40.5 on November 21 2025? | Nov 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | Nov 18 | $1 | +$3 | +317% |
| Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? | Nov 09 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-04? | Nov 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Oct 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | Oct 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Oct 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? | Oct 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? | Oct 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US forces in Venezuela by December 31? | Oct 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? | Oct 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | Oct 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | Oct 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on October | Oct 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Oct 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 7 | +72.9% | +56.5% | 43% | 43% | +35.8% |
| all | 26 | -37.4% | -43.4% | 15% | 15% | -55.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -43.4% | 15% | -55.8% |
| 10% | -48.8% | 15% | -60.0% |
| 15% | -53.7% | 15% | -63.9% |
| 20% | -58.3% | 15% | -67.4% |