Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:24:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
43 0x4387…afb3 weather 100 markets active 3d ago coverage 56d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this weather specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$26 (+23%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%51W / 49L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$25
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +40.4% +27.0% 51% 50% +10.6%
≤30d 98 +40.4% +27.0% 51% 50% +10.6%
≤90d 100 +39.2% +25.9% 51% 50% +9.9%
all 100 +39.2% +25.9% 51% 50% +9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.9% 50% +9.9%
10% +13.9% 45% -0.6%
15% +2.9% 38% -10.2%
20% -7.2% 30% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses51 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)100 / 100
History coverage56d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 100 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +829%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$9 +830%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $2 +$4 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 17 $1 +$2 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +185%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +428%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 71¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 41¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 54¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 47¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY No 52¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 92¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 78¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 179 history records