Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:17:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4388…5050
other · 718 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$11,361 +18%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,742 · open +$793
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$8,594
Realized+$8,742
Unrealized+$793
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses371 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions113
Markets (closed)618 / 718
Avg bet$89
Trades / day66.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 113 History 618 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,292
7 days+$2,029
14 days+$3,237
30 days+$8,346
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Yes 53¢ 70¢ $558 $741 +$183 (+33%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? No 45¢ 87¢ $377 $721 +$344 (+91%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 71¢ 92¢ $402 $518 +$116 (+29%)
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? No 55¢ 62¢ $335 $381 +$46 (+14%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1.5%? No 56¢ 57¢ $271 $280 +$9 (+3%)
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $255 $262 +$7 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $156 $258 +$103 (+66%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 52¢ 52¢ $244 $244 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 68¢ 80¢ $204 $242 +$37 (+18%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 8 2026? No 64¢ 70¢ $205 $225 +$20 (+10%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.125B? Yes 55¢ 68¢ $146 $179 +$33 (+23%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? Yes 48¢ 47¢ $180 $175 −$5 (-3%)
Amazon 2026 capex above $200B? No 22¢ 16¢ $249 $174 −$75 (-30%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? No 84¢ 92¢ $143 $158 +$15 (+10%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B? No 72¢ 74¢ $145 $149 +$4 (+3%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $130 $141 +$11 (+8%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 Action of the Year? No 38¢ 50¢ $102 $136 +$34 (+33%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $122 $135 +$13 (+11%)
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.9B? No 62¢ 59¢ $136 $130 −$7 (-5%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 50¢ 72¢ $85 $122 +$37 (+43%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? No 33¢ 68¢ $59 $121 +$61 (+104%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $102 $117 +$15 (+14%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 55¢ 95¢ $67 $117 +$50 (+74%)
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Down 44¢ 46¢ $112 $116 +$3 (+3%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? No 69¢ 97¢ $79 $110 +$32 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 11? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Adobe Q2 total ARR be above $26.0B? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 12 $107 −$95 -89%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $128 −$107 -84%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Jun 12 $582 +$192 +33%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $78 +$10 +13%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $90 +$96 +107%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $71 +$238 +335%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $467 +$157 +34%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $43 +$67 +157%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $22 +$70 +314%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 11 $983 +$273 +28%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $10.25B? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Oracle 2026 capital expenditures be above $55B? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Oracle 2026 capital expenditures be above $52.5B? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $11B? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $63 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Oracle Q4 Remaining Performance Obligations be above $700B? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 10? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 11 $175 +$400 +229%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $9.75B? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 11 $121 −$105 -87%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 10? Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $52 +$34 +66%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 11 $65 +$129 +197%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $10B? Jun 11 $11 +$30 +265%
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $10.5B? Jun 11 $7 +$43 +643%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? Jun 10 $324 +$38 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $80 +$105 +132%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $600M and $675M at mark Jun 10 $25 −$24 -93%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 10 $663 −$97 -15%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $675M and $750M at mark Jun 10 $100 +$153 +152%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 10 $34 −$34 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 10 $66 −$13 -20%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 10 $266 −$200 -75%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 10 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $21 +$15 +72%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $66 +$36 +54%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 9? Jun 10 $94 +$148 +158%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be less than $600M at market close Jun 09 $608 +$113 +18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 8? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 8? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.10 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $26 −$14 -55%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? Jun 09 $29 −$4 -14%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $68 −$68 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 09 $27 −$22 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 78% +$6,079
finance 17% +$2,703
tech 1% +$208
politics 1% +$122
world 1% +$110
culture 1% +$252
crypto 0% +$23
sports 0% +$37
economics 0% +$6
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Down 23¢ $8 11m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? SELL Yes 75¢ $124 25m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 61¢ $63 33m
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 29¢ $31 49m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 62¢ $63 50m
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? BUY Yes 70¢ $308 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 66¢ $67 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 63¢ $81 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $25 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $75 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? BUY No 31¢ $16 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? SELL No 88¢ $160 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 48¢ $50 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? BUY No 34¢ $44 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 3h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 56¢ $58 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 34¢ $105 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL No 44¢ $88 3h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 60¢ $124 3h
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility? BUY No 52¢ $30 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $59 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 3h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 12? BUY No 21¢ $22 3h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? BUY Down 13¢ $2 5h
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? BUY Yes 48¢ $65 11h
Will Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin be above 85%? BUY No 62¢ $118 11h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? SELL Yes 82¢ $39 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +3.9% -6.0% 50% 49% +7.6%
≤30d 378 +13.6% +2.8% 61% 55% +8.4%
≤90d 618 +15.8% +4.8% 60% 54% +8.0%
all 618 +15.8% +4.8% 60% 54% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover66.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 54% +8.0%
10% ← realistic here -5.3% 43% -2.3%
15% -14.4% 35% -11.8%
20% -22.8% 28% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,593.73 · official $8,597.97 (match) · 3500 history records