Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x4388…95e9 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-4%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +10.8% +0.2% 54% 54% -14.6%
≤30d 13 +10.8% +0.2% 54% 54% -14.6%
≤90d 13 +10.8% +0.2% 54% 54% -14.6%
all 13 +10.8% +0.2% 54% 54% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 54% -14.6%
10% -9.3% 54% -22.8%
15% -18.1% 46% -30.2%
20% -26.1% 38% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $16 −$1 -7%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $57 +$18 +32%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $19 +$19 +101%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $11 +$16 +146%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $13 +$13 +105%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $6 +$9 +152%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $30 +$21 +70%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $17 +$7 +42%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $14 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $7 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $14 23h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $14 23h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $51 24h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $13 2d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $11 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $19 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $13 3d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $17 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 39¢ $6 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $30 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $16 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $56 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $23 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records