Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:00:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x438a…61c4 weather 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,665 (+27%) realized +$3,683 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%83W / 89L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day43.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$278
14 days+$472
30 days+$3,108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$3,082
sports 0% +$10
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -6.1% -15.1% 57% 43% -0.2%
≤30d 172 +33.2% +20.5% 48% 37% +9.6%
≤90d 172 +33.2% +20.5% 48% 37% +9.6%
all 172 +33.2% +20.5% 48% 37% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.5% 37% +9.6%
10% ← realistic here +9.0% 30% -0.9%
15% -1.6% 22% -10.4%
20% -11.2% 18% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$18 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$3,683
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses83 / 89
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)172 / 175
History coverage24d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day43.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 15¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$13 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $63 +$34 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $207 +$100 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $97 +$60 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $248 +$34 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $150 −$21 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $77 −$11 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $19 +$13 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $26 +$6 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $156 +$33 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $203 −$59 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $684 +$39 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$6 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $71 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $155 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $152 +$215 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $188 −$52 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $157 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $110 +$18 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $33 +$17 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$69 +243%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$7 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $117 +$135 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $61 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $191 +$83 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $113 −$56 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $70 −$67 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $298 +$90 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $82 −$79 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $6 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $144 −$70 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $270 +$181 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $48 −$22 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 −$10 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $175 +$57 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $93 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $17 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? SELL No 70¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 20? BUY No 63¢ $63 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $223 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? SELL Yes 96¢ $85 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 66¢ $59 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 66¢ $143 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $282 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.21 · official $4.21 (match) · 1084 history records