Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:30:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x438b…29e2 crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$68 (+5%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$86
sports 20% +$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.2% -22.3% 72% 39% -17.0%
≤30d 18 -14.2% -22.3% 72% 39% -17.0%
≤90d 23 -9.0% -17.7% 70% 39% -11.2%
all 23 -9.0% -17.7% 70% 39% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 39% -11.2%
10% -25.5% 26% -19.7%
15% -32.7% 22% -27.5%
20% -39.3% 13% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$36 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage78d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $112 +$14 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $112 +$40 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $59 +$14 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$4 +84%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 03 $100 +$5 +5%
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 03 $68 −$13 -20%
Credit One Charleston Open: Iva Jovic vs Anna Kalinskaya Apr 03 $99 +$79 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $73 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 77d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 91¢ $105 77d
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Chicago Cubs 18¢ $55 77d
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Chicago Cubs 20¢ $58 77d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 87¢ $100 77d
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Chicago Cubs 48¢ $10 77d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 34¢ $10 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records