Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x438c…79d7 world 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$85 (+1%) realized +$127 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$261per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$231
14 days+$231
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 97% +$280
sports 3% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.9% +3.0% 71% 29% -3.0%
≤30d 9 +13.1% +2.3% 78% 33% -2.8%
≤90d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 61% 35% -5.6%
all 23 +0.9% -8.7% 61% 35% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 35% -5.6%
10% -17.5% 17% -14.6%
15% -25.4% 4% -22.9%
20% -32.8% 4% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$33 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized+$127
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage91d
Avg bet$261
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 74¢ 67¢ $411 $369 −$42 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $1,127 −$101 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $287 +$259 +90%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $282 +$5 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $254 +$28 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $234 −$10 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $199 +$3 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $816 +$48 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $254 +$45 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 28 $504 +$16 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 12 $164 +$46 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 02 $125 +$20 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $83 −$28 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $100 +$25 +25%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 26 $8 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $67 −$23 -35%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $80 −$80 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $100 −$34 -34%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 23 $100 −$1 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 23 $102 −$21 -21%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 10 $94 +$8 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $50 +$13 +26%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $20 +$3 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $411 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $411 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $546 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $546 28h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $287 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $287 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $282 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $282 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $254 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $253 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $232 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $232 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $224 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $224 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $234 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $235 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $202 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $202 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $199 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $199 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $201 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 39¢ $202 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $362 12d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $361 12d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $349 13d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $350 13d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $316 17d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $315 17d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $299 19d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $299 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.30 · official $378.99 · 71 history records