Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x438d…ce57 crypto 320 markets active 0h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$341 (-1%) realized −$521 · open +$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate63%186W / 107L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5,277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$41
14 days+$76
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% +$274
crypto 24% −$144
other 16% +$47
tech 8% +$28
sports 6% −$368
economics 2% +$4
world 1% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -8.4% -17.2% 72% 13% -12.2%
≤30d 247 -6.7% -15.5% 64% 15% -9.6%
≤90d 263 -10.1% -18.6% 62% 15% -14.4%
all 293 -10.4% -18.9% 63% 14% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 14% -10.5%
10% -26.7% 10% -19.0%
15% -33.8% 9% -26.8%
20% -40.3% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$17 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$5,277
Realized−$521
Unrealized+$180
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses186 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions27
Markets (closed)293 / 320
History coverage233d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? Yes 89¢ 75¢ $3,860 $3,235 −$625 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $1,054 $1,860 +$806 (+76%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Solana reach $90 on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 17? No 95¢ 92¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $80 on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Solana reach $85 on June 17? No 99¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 17? No 99¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 17? No 98¢ 96¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 17? No 88¢ 94¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 17? No 98¢ 96¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $95 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,050 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 17? No 99¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 17? No 99¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 17? Jun 17 $22 −$2 -9%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $70 on June 16? Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 16? Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 16? Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 16? Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $15 −$6 -42%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 16? Jun 17 $14 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,950 on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -95%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? Jun 16 $17 −$15 -92%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$6 -71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -56%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -54%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -62%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$7 -75%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$32 +218%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$22 +90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$5 -68%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$19 +183%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$8 -89%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $24 +$4 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $32 +$10 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $14 −$5 -32%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 89¢ $10 13m
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 67¢ $55 37m
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 67¢ $55 37m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $10 38m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 93¢ $10 48m
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $299 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $998 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $379 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Solana reach $75 on June 17? SELL No 79¢ $20 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $46 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $46 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 55¢ $45 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 53¢ $44 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 52¢ $43 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 52¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $73 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $116 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $72 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $42 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $70 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $42 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $70 1h
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $42 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,276.71 · official $5,276.70 (match) · 1114 history records