Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
43 0x4392…6b4e politics 8 markets active 4d ago coverage 230d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$161 (+9%) realized +$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +51% what you keep after slip
Net edge+51%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$276
14 days+$276
30 days+$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$724
politics 23% +$729
other 6% +$88
world 6% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+51.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +226.1% +195.1% 100% 100% +195.1%
≤30d 1 +226.1% +195.1% 100% 100% +195.1%
≤90d 1 +226.1% +195.1% 100% 100% +195.1%
all 8 +66.9% +51.0% 62% 62% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.0% 62% -1.2%
10% +36.6% 62% -10.7%
15% +23.4% 62% -19.3%
20% +11.3% 62% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +226% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$244 vs −$353 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage230d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $122 +$276 +226%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 13? Nov 13 $100 +$222 +222%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $250 +$556 +223%
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events o Nov 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 29? Oct 30 $100 +$67 +67%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $100 +$98 +98%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $397 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $122 3d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 88¢ $1,000 181d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? SELL Yes 93¢ $322 218d
Will the government shutdown end November 13? BUY Yes 29¢ $100 219d
Will the government shutdown end November 12? BUY No 31¢ $250 219d
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events o BUY Yes 53¢ $50 221d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 29? SELL No 99¢ $167 232d
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 233d
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-29? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 233d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 29? BUY No 59¢ $100 234d
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 234d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records