Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:57:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
43 0x4395…8fd0 sports 203 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$115 (+1%) realized +$149 · open −$34
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%79W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$180est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$1,097
14 days+$1,875
30 days+$1,778
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$2,702
other 18% −$1,328
crypto 16% −$219
world 2% +$305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +60.8% +45.5% 57% 57% +64.4%
≤30d 60 +38.1% +25.0% 48% 47% +46.3%
≤90d 175 +10.9% +0.3% 45% 45% +1.0%
all 175 +10.9% +0.3% 45% 45% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 45% +1.0%
10% -9.3% 43% -8.6%
15% -18.1% 41% -17.5%
20% -26.1% 38% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$65 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$149
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses79 / 96
Est. fees paid−$180
Open positions2
Markets (closed)175 / 203
History coverage66d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Thiago Seyboth Wild 66¢ 66¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+1%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants LG Twins 55¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to S Jun 28 $45 +$99 +222%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 28 $45 −$44 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $54 −$53 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +137%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi Jun 24 $51 +$111 +218%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $46 −$45 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $46 +$67 +145%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $55 +$99 +180%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $49 −$48 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 23 $35 −$34 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $117 +$104 +90%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $56 +$59 +105%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win Jun 23 $70 +$546 +783%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $45 −$44 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 23 $68 +$81 +118%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide Jun 22 $105 +$115 +110%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $56 −$55 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jay Clarke vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 22 $71 −$70 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $46 +$32 +70%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $184 +$155 +84%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $50 +$67 +134%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 +$311 +310%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $42 −$41 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -96%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 +$110 +216%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $42 +$59 +140%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins Jun 19 $46 +$48 +105%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
ITF Luque: Marjorie Souza vs Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Jun 18 $39 +$278 +714%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $37 +$92 +250%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$197 +492%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$69 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $58 +$52 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $65 −$63 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $69 −$4 -6%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $64 +$37 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 +$77 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 66¢ $64 1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Lotte Giants BUY LG Twins 55¢ $35 9h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 43¢ $45 10h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to S SELL 98¢ $144 10h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to S BUY 30¢ $45 12h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $54 12h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: Col BUY 32¢ $62 14h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 34¢ $53 25h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1. BUY 25¢ $52 35h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Cabo Ver BUY 10¢ $62 40h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY 31¢ $46 2d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Tuni BUY $62 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will Korea Republic win on BUY 25¢ $105 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 1.5 AND Czech BUY 22¢ $166 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi SELL 99¢ $162 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Switzerland wi BUY 30¢ $51 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $46 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U BUY 13¢ $67 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 100¢ $112 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 40¢ $46 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U BUY 23¢ $99 4d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $154 4d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 35¢ $55 4d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 28¢ $151 4d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 44¢ $49 4d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will E BUY 21¢ $112 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread BUY $89 4d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz BUY SSG Landers 40¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.51 · official $63.51 (match) · 349 history records