Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x4396…c18e
crypto · 46 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$39 +26%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$39 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses27 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage227d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 0 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Anyones Legend 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +441%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 20 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 16 $5 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 16 $0 $0 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 16 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 12 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 11 $1 +$2 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 11 $19 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 11 $6 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 14 $1 +$1 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 13 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 13 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jan 13 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Nov 15 $1 +$2 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Nov 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Nov 15 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Nov 14 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Nov 14 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Nov 14 $1 −$1 -74%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 11 $11 +$1 +8%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 02 $1 +$6 +614%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $1 −$1 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% +$13
other 24% +$21
sports 9% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 93¢ $10 8h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 92¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $3 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +77.6% +60.7% 75% 62% +37.0%
≤30d 8 +77.6% +60.7% 75% 62% +37.0%
≤90d 10 +44.8% +31.0% 60% 50% +31.9%
all 46 +24.3% +12.4% 59% 52% +14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 52% +14.9%
10% +1.7% 46% +3.9%
15% -8.1% 39% -6.1%
20% -17.2% 28% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records