Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:53:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
43 0x4396…29aa crypto 206 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,495 (+13%) realized +$1,506 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate80%145W / 36L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$2,327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$16
crypto 18% +$1,437
sports 1% −$2
politics 1% −$9
world 0% −$1
weather 0% +$20
finance 0% −$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +205.4% +176.4% 22% 22% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +105.7% +86.1% 25% 25% -9.4%
≤90d 81 +13.6% +2.8% 68% 10% -9.6%
all 181 +7.6% -2.7% 80% 10% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 10% +5.1%
10% -12.0% 8% -5.0%
15% -20.5% 8% -14.2%
20% -28.3% 7% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×6.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×28.79 per $1 lost it wins $28.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$2,327
Realized+$1,506
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses145 / 36
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions24
Markets (closed)181 / 206
History coverage131d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,220 $2,219 −$1 (-0%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 50¢ 58¢ $39 $46 +$7 (+17%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 42¢ $39 $32 −$7 (-17%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 82¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 67¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 87¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,226 −$4 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,231 −$4 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $2,236 −$4 -0%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? Jun 14 $1 +$24 +2286%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or below on June 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 5? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 4? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 01 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $1 +$2 +233%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 18 $1 $0 +5%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House May 18 $1 $0 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? May 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,222 6m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,222 21m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2,226 27m
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2,227 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,231 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2,232 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,236 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Spain win on 2026-0 BUY 11¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 4? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 4? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 5? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or below on June 4? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 17d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 47¢ $2 23d
Will Donald Trump dance on May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 23d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 27d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 44¢ $1 34d
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House SELL Yes 33¢ $1 34d
BNB Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 35d
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 35d
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 35d
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,327.23 · official $2,327.21 (match) · 454 history records