Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

43 0x4396…c9e8 other 12 markets active 6h ago coverage 42d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$2 (-3%) realized −$5 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-32.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-25.2%	-32.3%	50%	25%	-34.8%
≤30d	4	-25.2%	-32.3%	50%	25%	-34.8%
≤90d	4	-25.2%	-32.3%	50%	25%	-34.8%
all	4	-25.2%	-32.3%	50%	25%	-34.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.3%	25%	-34.8%
10%	-38.8%	25%	-41.1%
15%	-44.7%	25%	-46.7%
20%	-50.1%	25%	-52.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -28% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.42 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage

Net worth$60

Realized−$5

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions8

Markets (closed)4 / 12

History coverage42d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	41¢	59¢	$10	$15	+$5 (+46%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	45¢	44¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	74¢	72¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+18%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	67¢	68¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	2¢	1¢	$2	$1	−$1 (-62%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$3	+$3	+93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 11	$3	−$3	-99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Jun 11	$5	$0	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	2¢	$2	6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$5	5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$3	5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	5d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	5d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	74¢	$10	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$3	5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	19¢	$5	5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL No	89¢	$5	5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	42d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	42d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY No	83¢	$5	42d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.51 · official $59.51 (match) · 14 history records