Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x439a…5bb3 crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$345 (+5%) realized +$351 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%31W / 24L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$268
14 days+$268
30 days+$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$363
other 3% −$90
sports 1% −$25
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -1.9% -11.3% 60% 46% -6.0%
≤30d 52 -1.9% -11.3% 60% 46% -6.0%
≤90d 55 -7.3% -16.1% 56% 44% -6.5%
all 55 -7.3% -16.1% 56% 44% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 44% -6.5%
10% -24.1% 36% -15.4%
15% -31.5% 25% -23.6%
20% -38.2% 16% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$33 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$351
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses31 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage56d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 42¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bryson DeChambeau leave LIV Golf by June 30th? No 96¢ 52¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$15 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$19 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$24 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$24 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 +$40 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$19 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $275 +$89 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $578 −$54 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $331 +$41 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$54 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $106 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $738 −$76 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$36 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $128 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $154 −$28 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $77 +$32 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $78 +$66 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $432 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $229 +$33 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $514 +$89 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$26 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $226 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $453 −$28 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $76 +$25 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $251 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $53 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $354 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $155 +$116 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$17 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $130 +$89 +69%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $15 +$10 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 21m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $27 22m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $52 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $90 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $27 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $76 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $58 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.39 · official $81.23 (match) · 241 history records