Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:55:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x439c…8a28 crypto 41 markets active 13d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+0%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,951per market
Trades / day135.2pace
Fees−$843est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$8,041
crypto 30% −$826
other 14% −$9,439
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 41 -10.1% -18.6% 46% 44% -12.1%
≤90d 41 -10.1% -18.6% 46% 44% -12.1%
all 41 -10.1% -18.6% 46% 44% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 44% -12.1%
10% -26.4% 44% -20.5%
15% ← realistic here -33.5% 39% -28.2%
20% -40.1% 37% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$2,430) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,561 vs −$1,449 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$843
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,951
Trades / day135.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,951 −$4,439 -75%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3,049 +$2,897 +95%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $1,504 +$1,549 +103%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $841 +$666 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $457 +$384 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $248 +$208 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $236 −$225 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1,059 −$576 -54%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $4,904 −$4,843 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $107 −$62 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $533 −$523 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $509 +$737 +145%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $1,006 +$244 +24%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $2,087 −$2,047 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2,053 −$2,000 -97%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1,531 −$1,500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $932 −$900 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $1,507 +$1,763 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $1,860 +$1,889 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $1,040 −$1,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $622 −$600 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $930 +$783 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $672 −$650 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $208 −$200 -96%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $8,023 +$2,661 +33%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,038 +$3,362 +165%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $913 −$900 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $2,409 −$50 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $1,066 −$1,035 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $3,169 +$1,427 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1,122 −$1,100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5,072 −$5,000 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2,430 +$1,703 +70%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $3,051 +$3,854 +126%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $8,460 −$2,933 -35%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $510 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1,030 +$743 +72%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $2,643 +$3,198 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $313 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2,860 +$1,582 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $230 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,282 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,908 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,516 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,415 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,112 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $5,946 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $3,049 14d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3,053 14d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,504 14d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $1,506 14d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $841 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 99¢ $841 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 53¢ $457 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $456 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $105 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $483 14d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 39¢ $1,062 14d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 38¢ $306 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $45 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 14d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron SELL Rinky Hijikata 99¢ $1,246 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 305 history records