Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:18:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x439d…0e14 crypto 386 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$272 (-10%) realized −$230 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%216W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$25
14 days−$34
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$268
other 12% −$74
sports 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 56% -18.7%
≤30d 83 -1.7% -11.0% 66% 57% -14.1%
≤90d 238 -8.4% -17.1% 60% 51% -14.6%
all 385 -9.3% -18.0% 56% 46% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 46% -18.9%
10% -25.8% 34% -26.7%
15% -33.0% 29% -33.8%
20% -39.6% 26% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$230
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses216 / 169
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)385 / 386
History coverage149d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET Jun 20 $29 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $46 +$9 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$4 +140%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$7 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$10 +44%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $91 −$91 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $84 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$4 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +137%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +266%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $64 +$10 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $54 +$10 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $48 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11PM ET Jun 10 $43 +$5 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +42%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 09 $28 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +114%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +114%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 7PM ET Jun 09 $28 +$4 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 08 $24 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $43 40m
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $43 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $29 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 5h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 83¢ $46 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $41 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $40 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $33 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $24 4d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $91 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $91 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $84 9d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 9d
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $34 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.03 (match) · 675 history records