Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:20:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x439e…880d world 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%16W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$14
other 19% $0
politics 3% −$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 3% −$3
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.8% -10.3% 30% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 23 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 4% -11.2%
≤90d 23 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 4% -11.2%
all 47 -6.4% -15.3% 34% 2% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 2% -11.4%
10% -23.4% 0% -19.9%
15% -30.8% 0% -27.6%
20% -37.6% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses16 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage472d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $35 −$2 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $5 $0 -7%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $69 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $39 −$2 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $18 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $18 $0 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $32 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $67 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $18 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $5 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $38 −$10 -26%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $2 $0 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $53 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $53 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jan 31 $2 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 29 $8 $0 +4%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 25 $1 $0 -60%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 07 $12 −$3 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $13 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before April? Mar 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 26 $13 $0 -2%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 23 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 49°F or higher on March 8? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $39 7m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $39 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $4 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $29 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $35 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $27 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $28 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $32 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $10 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $34 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $31 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $29 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $38 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $21 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records