Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
43 0x43a1…7163 other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$71 (-8%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%15W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$240
14 days+$213
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$280
other 43% −$170
weather 10% −$42
crypto 3% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +38.4% +25.2% 71% 71% +47.5%
≤30d 8 +21.1% +9.5% 62% 62% +37.8%
≤90d 28 -17.8% -25.6% 54% 54% -4.7%
all 28 -17.8% -25.6% 54% 54% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 54% -4.7%
10% -32.7% 46% -13.8%
15% -39.2% 21% -22.2%
20% -45.2% 14% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$26 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses15 / 13
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 31
History coverage91d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $15 +$19 +124%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $50 +$11 +23%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $50 −$49 -99%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/ Jun 26 $99 +$116 +117%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 −$40 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $108 +$175 +162%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 22 $19 +$8 +44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $17 +$6 +33%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $18 +$6 +32%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 07 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 20? Apr 21 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 20? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 12? Apr 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 12? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 12? Apr 13 $22 +$4 +20%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 11 $30 +$21 +71%
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Apr 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $36 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $50 26h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $50 26h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $15 26h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/ BUY 45¢ $49 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/ BUY 45¢ $49 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire to win t BUY 51¢ $30 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Germany to score first vs. Ecuador? A BUY 53¢ $12 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $49 4d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $59 4d
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 69¢ $19 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 10d
Will Ashley Barrett die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 52d
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 52d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 20? BUY No 81¢ $15 71d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 20? BUY No 86¢ $10 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $16 75d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 12? BUY No 58¢ $10 78d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 12? BUY No 83¢ $22 78d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 78d
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? BUY No 59¢ $30 79d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 79d
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 80¢ $10 79d
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 75¢ $10 79d
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 79d
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 54¢ $13 79d
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 79d
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 79d
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 75¢ $17 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.69 · official $35.69 (match) · 52 history records