Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:06:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
43 0x43a4…c41d world 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate28%18W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$52
14 days+$69
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$57
politics 22% −$5
other 21% −$29
sports 9% +$3
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +6.6% -3.5% 42% 17% -6.6%
≤30d 34 +2.7% -7.0% 38% 9% -8.0%
≤90d 45 +1.1% -8.6% 36% 7% -9.1%
all 64 +0.6% -9.0% 28% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 6% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 3% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 3% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses18 / 46
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage336d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $23 +$12 +53%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $130 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $131 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $147 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $31 +$2 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $363 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $196 +$41 +21%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $328 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $101 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $122 −$3 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $109 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $123 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $111 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $14 −$2 -17%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $113 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $108 +$7 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $302 +$14 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $203 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -8%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $107 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Jun 01 $310 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $10 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $145 −$8 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $82 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $92 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $106 −$3 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $6 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $10 +$4 +37%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $84 −$1 -1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $272 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $172 −$5 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $89 −$3 -3%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $112 −$26 -23%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $30 −$5 -17%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $579 +$3 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $579 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $579 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Jul 21 $188 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Jul 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 20 $98 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 20 $90 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $23 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $97 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $94 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $36 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $131 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $131 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $33 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $14 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $14 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $70 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $59 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $75 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $76 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $48 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $84 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $45 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $124 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $109 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $110 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $111 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $95 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 242 history records