Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43a6…96c1 politics 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$950 (-1%) realized −$950 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%45W / 108L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,103per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$11
14 days+$41
30 days−$840
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$78
other 37% +$458
sports 14% −$1,338
world 4% −$17
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 +4.8% -5.1% 15% 8% -10.7%
≤90d 88 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 8% -10.7%
all 153 +6.2% -3.9% 29% 14% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 14% -10.0%
10% -13.1% 13% -18.7%
15% -21.5% 12% -26.5%
20% -29.2% 10% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,447) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$27 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$950
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses45 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 153
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,103
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,409 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $1,233 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,906 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,821 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $377 +$4 +1%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,450 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $984 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5,628 −$6 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,007 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $6,680 −$7 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $57 −$57 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $73 +$132 +180%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,312 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,808 −$4 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $379 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $521 $0 +0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,871 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $3,226 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $3,598 −$4 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,722 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 25 $711 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $45 +$60 +134%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 May 24 $41 +$34 +83%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $2,497 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,293 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,137 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 20 $941 −$941 -100%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $875 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $846 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,407 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,409 3h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,266 6h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,268 7h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,292 47h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,294 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,231 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,233 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,248 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,128 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,130 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,167 3d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,169 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $377 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,447 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,450 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $983 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $984 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,334 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,336 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,518 9d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,520 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,048 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,050 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,006 9d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,007 9d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,028 10d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $768 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 454 history records