Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43a7…0b46 other 471 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$225 (-5%) realized −$220 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%192W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$194
14 days−$143
30 days−$433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 54% −$351
world 30% +$118
other 11% +$13
tech 2% +$27
politics 1% +$7
economics 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -9.5% -18.1% 44% 32% -21.4%
≤30d 178 +5.2% -4.8% 40% 32% -28.8%
≤90d 434 +8.6% -1.7% 41% 33% -14.0%
all 460 +10.0% -0.5% 42% 34% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.5% 34% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 27% -21.4%
15% -18.7% 20% -29.0%
20% -26.7% 15% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$220
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses192 / 268
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions31
Markets (closed)460 / 471
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 52¢ 64¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+25%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 45¢ 36¢ $14 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 47¢ 53¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 53¢ 47¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 82¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+48%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 40¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 18, 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 8? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)? Jun 18 $3 +$3 +120%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +45%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$4 -74%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $12 +$2 +20%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 29, 2026? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Jun 18 $2 +$8 +498%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$8 -122%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$13 -136%
Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +79%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +60%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 18 $34 −$21 -63%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 18 $7 −$6 -90%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 18 $21 +$3 +13%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $4 $0 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $20 −$3 -18%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $14 −$1 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 17 $59 +$11 +18%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $11 $0 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $31 −$4 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $72 −$3 -4%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 +9%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$6 +140%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $1 $0 +45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 17 $1 $0 +61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +301%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 17 $41 −$16 -39%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $36 −$7 -18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $69 +$20 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 32m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $6 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 9¢ $1 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.13 · official $83.35 (match) · 3500 history records