Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
43 0x43a7…b799 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,075 (+15%) realized +$1,075 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +242% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +197% what you keep after slip
Net edge+197%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$806per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,169
7 days+$1,189
14 days+$1,189
30 days+$1,189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$996
politics 34% −$50
sports 11% +$193
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+209.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +272.4% +236.9% 88% 50% +11.4%
≤30d 8 +272.4% +236.9% 88% 50% +11.4%
≤90d 8 +272.4% +236.9% 88% 50% +11.4%
all 9 +241.9% +209.3% 78% 44% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +209.3% 44% +3.4%
10% +179.7% 33% -6.5%
15% +152.7% 33% -15.6%
20% +127.9% 33% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +242% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$46 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.31 per $1 lost it wins $13.31
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,075
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage256d
Avg bet$806
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,607 +$94 +6%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$18 +18%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $206 +$155 +75%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $407 +$301 +74%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$43 -21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $609 +$548 +90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,119 +$96 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $499 +$20 +4%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Oct 07 $2,500 −$50 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,665 59m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,504 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $36 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $120 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $406 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $204 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $302 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $348 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 36¢ $160 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,156 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $612 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $600 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 60¢ $603 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $519 29h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $519 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $499 2d
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft SELL Yes 97¢ $2,450 253d
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft BUY Yes 99¢ $2,500 255d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records