Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43a8…73e0 crypto 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+0%) realized +$124 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate54%46W / 39L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$79
14 days+$79
30 days+$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$999
other 27% +$381
crypto 18% +$294
finance 11% +$406
economics 1% −$26
tech 0% −$16
politics 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +19.2% +7.9% 100% 100% +7.9%
≤30d 3 +6.4% -3.8% 67% 67% +3.0%
≤90d 28 -69.3% -72.3% 21% 18% -12.4%
all 85 -6.8% -15.7% 54% 27% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 27% -9.1%
10% -23.7% 19% -17.8%
15% -31.1% 13% -25.7%
20% -37.9% 8% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$57 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$874
Realized+$124
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses46 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)85 / 88
History coverage241d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 93¢ $496 $501 +$5 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 64¢ 62¢ $204 $196 −$8 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 44¢ $208 $178 −$30 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 23 $413 +$79 +19%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? Jun 09 $526 +$80 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? May 31 $103 −$16 -15%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 23 $542 +$43 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 28 $1,057 +$405 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 09 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Apr 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $15M committed to the Solomon public sale? Apr 09 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,200 in November? Apr 09 $68 −$68 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 09 $879 −$403 -46%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 07 $317 +$65 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 31 $268 +$49 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 12 $229 +$17 +8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Mar 12 $312 −$83 -27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 06 $217 −$117 -54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Mar 02 $89 +$8 +9%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 01 $100 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 01 $10 +$37 +373%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 01 $5 +$5 +97%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $365 −$364 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $1,577 +$122 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Feb 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale? Feb 27 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 26 $15 +$25 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Feb 26 $10 +$16 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Feb 26 $10 +$23 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 26 $10 +$16 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 26 $10 +$32 +322%
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? Feb 26 $231 −$130 -56%
Will the US not strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $230 −$28 -12%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jan 29 $400 +$37 +9%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 21 $1,499 −$181 -12%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $315 −$25 -8%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Jan 14 $300 +$15 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $100 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $100 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $10 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $96 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $191 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $76 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $128 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $104 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $104 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $706 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $32 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $92 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $92 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $92 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $64 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $94 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $94 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $94 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $492 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $77 8d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $70 9d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $10 9d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $68 9d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $17 9d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $15 10d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $2 10d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $68 10d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $34 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $874.42 · official $874.42 (match) · 529 history records