Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43a8…d77f sports 307 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1985 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$244 (-3%) realized −$268 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%131W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1985.0pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$94
crypto 38% +$241
weather 11% −$190
other 9% −$44
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1985 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 271 +2.5% -7.2% 48% 36% -8.5%
≤30d 271 +2.5% -7.2% 48% 36% -8.5%
≤90d 271 +2.5% -7.2% 48% 36% -8.5%
all 271 +2.5% -7.2% 48% 36% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1985.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 36% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 29% -17.2%
15% -24.2% 21% -25.2%
20% -31.7% 17% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$470
Realized−$268
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses131 / 140
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions62
Markets (closed)271 / 307
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1985.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner FURIA 90¢ 100¢ $89 $99 +$10 (+12%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $77 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 58¢ 32¢ $49 $27 −$22 (-44%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 48¢ 68¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+39%)
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 77¢ 100¢ $19 $25 +$6 (+29%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 29¢ 20¢ $26 $18 −$8 (-30%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 56¢ 21¢ $41 $15 −$26 (-62%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 62¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 70¢ 88¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+26%)
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Nick Hardt 56¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+77%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 91¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Over 61¢ 52¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 62¢ 80¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+27%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 95¢ 94¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 37¢ 44¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? No 85¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 91¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Amaru Gaming 35¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+186%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 63¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 69¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 68¢ 79¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Toronto Blue Jays 95¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $1 +$2 +134%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$5 +52%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$1 -3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $246 −$39 -16%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +4%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Luca Van Assche Jun 18 $1 $0 +18%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 +$2 +42%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $6 +$7 +122%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $21 +$7 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $68 +$9 +13%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $83 −$38 -46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $57 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 -1%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $16 −$14 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $138 −$34 -25%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $6 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $8 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $244 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $75 +$292 +390%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $1 +$1 +118%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $25 −$15 -60%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $16 −$11 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$12 -73%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $6 −$4 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $45 −$25 -56%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $51 −$5 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $91 −$33 -36%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $97 +$40 +42%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$11 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $79 −$12 -16%
Set Handicap: Tseng (-1.5) vs Djere (+1.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $82 +$3 +4%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $31 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $93 +$17 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $84 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $1 +$1 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 18¢ $1 1m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 18¢ $1 1m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 18¢ $1 1m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 18¢ $1 1m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 18¢ $1 1m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 1m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 1m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 2m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 3m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $1 6m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $1 8m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $1 9m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $1 9m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $1 9m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $1 9m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $1 10m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $2 10m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Team to Take First Corner BUY Switzerland 99¢ $1 14m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $2 14m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $1 14m
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 61¢ $1 14m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $1 14m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 15m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 92¢ $41 15m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 95¢ $3 16m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 90¢ $28 19m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 88¢ $1 22m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 88¢ $8 22m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 22¢ $1 22m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 15¢ $6 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.95 · official $468.05 (match) · 3500 history records