Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
43 0x43a8…63ef other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$396 (-35%) realized −$250 · open −$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$213
sports 27% −$181
crypto 21% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +23.0% +11.3% 29% 29% -60.1%
≤30d 17 +23.0% +11.3% 29% 29% -60.1%
≤90d 17 +23.0% +11.3% 29% 29% -60.1%
all 17 +23.0% +11.3% 29% 29% -60.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 29% -60.1%
10% +0.6% 24% -63.9%
15% -9.1% 24% -67.4%
20% -18.0% 24% -70.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late +101% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$45 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$204
Realized−$250
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions10
Markets (closed)17 / 27
History coverage3d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 99¢ $50 $86 +$36 (+71%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$52 +510%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -83%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $20 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $8 +$42 +550%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 +$19 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $18 +$32 +180%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $83 −$82 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $111 −$110 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $157 −$100 -64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 12m
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 25¢ $18 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $19 14h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 14h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 28h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 30h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $18 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 30h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 30h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $83 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $111 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.76 · official $203.76 (match) · 40 history records