Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
43 0x43a8…7b9b crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$321 (-0%) realized −$346 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%65W / 8L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$1,469per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,783now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$114
other 6% +$20
sports 5% +$3
politics 4% −$1
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 73 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$1,463) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×17.16 per $1 lost it wins $17.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$1,783
Realized−$346
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses65 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage258d
Avg bet$1,469
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 21¢ 50¢ $540 $1,300 +$760 (+141%)
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? Yes 43¢ 17¢ $1,218 $484 −$734 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1,070 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 22 $1,061 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 02 $306 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $110? Feb 28 $4,286 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $4,282 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $4,277 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $4,273 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $4,269 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $4,265 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $4,260 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 17? Feb 18 $241 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 18 $410 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $3,605 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 16? Feb 17 $4,252 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $4,248 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 14? Feb 15 $4,243 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 13? Feb 14 $4,238 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $2,632 +$8 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 4? Jan 05 $1,276 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on January 3? Jan 04 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 3? Jan 04 $1,208 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on January 2? Jan 03 $1,274 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $1,269 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 30? Dec 31 $1,268 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 29? Dec 30 $1,267 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 December 22-28? Dec 29 $1,264 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on December 2 Dec 29 $156 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on December 28? Dec 29 $1,107 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on December 26 Dec 27 $1,261 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on December 25? Dec 26 $587 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $170 on December 25? Dec 26 $673 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on December 23? Dec 24 $1,259 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 22? Dec 23 $1,258 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 15-21? Dec 22 $1,256 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on December 21? Dec 22 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.50 on December 21? Dec 22 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on December 21? Dec 22 $303 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on December 21? Dec 22 $303 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on December 21? Dec 22 $418 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on December 20? Dec 21 $1,254 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 19? Dec 20 $436 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on December 19? Dec 20 $816 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 18? Dec 19 $1,251 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 17? Dec 18 $498 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 17? Dec 18 $752 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 16? Dec 17 $1,249 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 37¢ $13 42m
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 36¢ $66 42m
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 58¢ $2 1h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 58¢ $1 1h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 41¢ $6 1h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 40¢ $5 1h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 38¢ $21 1h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 37¢ $134 1h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 24¢ $43 1h
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 16¢ $377 1h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 2h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 2h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 2h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? SELL Yes 13¢ $89 2h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 5h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 5h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 5h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 7h
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,783.45 · official $1,783.45 (match) · 237 history records