Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

43
0x43ad…56c7
crypto · 11 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$1 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage59d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -71%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 18 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 18 $1 +$1 +61%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 17 $1 +$1 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 11 -18.5% -26.3% 45% 36% -8.1%
all 11 -18.5% -26.3% 45% 36% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 36% -8.1%
10% -33.3% 27% -16.9%
15% -39.8% 27% -24.9%
20% -45.7% 18% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records